Rasmussen (2/4, likely voters, 12/4 in parentheses):
Creigh Deeds (D): 30 (39)
Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (39)
Some other candidate: 6 (4)Brian Moran (D): 36 (41)
Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (37)
Some other candidate: 4 (5)Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (36)
Robert McDonnell (R): 42 (41)
Some other candidate: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor’s race a second time, meaning we now have trendlines… and, frankly, they don’t look very appetizing. Ex-Del. Brian Moran led AG Robert McDonnell last time by 4, but now he’s trailing by 3, while Del. Creigh Deeds fell from a tie to a 9-point deficit.
Part of the problem here may be that, while McDonnell has long since consolidated Republican support, the three Dem contenders are in primary attack mode, driving their numbers down as they target each other. The numbers in the McAuliffe/McDonnell matchup don’t seem to have budged much, which suggests that McAuliffe may be doing the best job right now of the three of getting his message into the media… although that still doesn’t seem to translate into a good performance in the general matchup.
UPDATE (James L.): Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen weighs in:
I think the answer here is in the timing of the poll being conducted. It was done Wednesday night. McDonnell resigned as Attorney General Tuesday and that was all over local tv news casts Tuesday, and then all over the state’s newspapers on Wednesday. That level of exposure is unusual for a 24 hour media cycle this far out from November, and I bet it helped McDonnell to lead in the poll. I certainly don’t think there was any nefarious intent in the timing of the poll but that sort of thing does have an impact.
The Democratic primary in June 9, 2009 and general election is November 3, 2009. The numbers may get worse before they get better, but the primary seems like it is early enough for any negative consequences to fade. I tend to think that contested primaries are, on the whole, good if the candidates are not very well known, as is the case here. This may be a good test for that theory.
that at this point four years ago, Jerry Kilgore had a 10-pt lead over Tim Kaine. That lead held fairly steadily until late summer. Kaine didn’t pull ahead until, IIRC, September or early October. Plus, this is Rasmussen; their early numbers are not that reliable and often show swings in support when there aren’t any.